U.S. imports set for record month in September

What's happening

U.S. container imports are on track for their busiest month of 2026 in September, according to the National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker, released September 9. The tracker projects 2.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units, up 9.6% from September 2025. That follows a softer July, down 3.9% year over year, and a projected August slightly below last year.

NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold attributed part of the late surge to vessel delays from bad weather in China; NRF also cited some rerouting away from the Panama Canal. Retail demand has held up despite tariff increases, inflation and higher fuel costs, NRF said.

• September forecast: 2.31 million TEUs, up 9.6%.
• July actual: 2.3 million TEUs, down 3.9%.
• August projection: 2.29 million TEUs, down 1.3%.
• 2026 total: 25.7 million TEUs forecast, up 1% from 25.4 million in 2025.

What it means for owners, tenants and investors

Import volume is a leading driver of warehouse demand, and a year roughly even with 2025 points to steady rather than surging need for distribution space. That is consistent with Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 finding that national industrial vacancy fell to 6.9% as supply slowed. A late peak season can bring short-term demand for overflow storage, yard space and flexible short-term leases.

For Southern California, the nation's largest import gateway, shifting routings and tariff policy directly affect how much cargo lands locally versus at East and Gulf Coast ports. Tenants tied to imports should keep lease flexibility where they can, and owners should weigh tenant credit and term over short-term rent spikes.

Imports are holding near last year's record pace despite tariffs, which supports steady national warehouse demand.

What to watch

NRF's next monthly update will show whether the late surge holds into the fourth quarter or fades once holiday inventory is in place. Tariff changes remain the main source of swings in monthly volumes.

Photo: Ian Taylor / Unsplash.